So I Know That I Have Genital Herpes And Am

So I know that I have genital herpes and am on Valtrex which I know is not a 100% thing but I have also had bug bites in that area often times before (like before i became sexually active). What is the likelihood of me getting a blister now after having not had one for the whole time I've been on the medication? I have also been outside for more than an hour everyday so whats the chances it could just be a bug bite?